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Country insight – Russia

Russia shifts towards a carbon-free economy in Rapid and Net Zero scenarios, but remains relatively unchanged in Business-as-usual (BAU)

Highlights

-1% to -11%

Decline in primary energy 2020-2050

4% to 48%

Share of renewables by 2050

24% to 92%

Share of renewables in power generation by 2050

In Net Zero renewables become the largest source of energy consumption in Russia by 2050
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Under BAU, oil and gas demand in Russia remains flat, while under Rapid and Net Zero oil demand falls by 39% and 64% by 2050 respectively. Gas consumption falls by 22% and 61% in these two scenarios
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Gas remains a key energy export, with production increasing across all three scenarios

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Projections

  • Russia's economy grows at a rate of 1.1% per annum in 2018-2050, higher than 0.7% over 1990-2018.
  • Due to modest efficiency gains, Russia’s primary energy consumption is flat in BAU (-1.4% over 2018-2050) and declines slightly in Rapid (-7%) and Net Zero (-11%).
  • Gas remains the leading energy source in Russia, with its share growing to 57% of the primary energy mix in BAU, holding steady at 48% in Rapid and falling to 23% in Net Zero.
  • At the same time, renewables’ output grows significantly in all scenarios, driven mainly by wind. Renewables share of primary energy increases to 4% in BAU, 20% in Rapid and 48% in Net Zero, in which it becomes the largest source of energy.
  • Coal demand falls across all scenarios – to zero under Rapid and Net Zero by 2050.
  • Demand for oil in Russia remains almost flat in BAU (+6% over 2018-2050) and declines by 40% and 60% in Rapid and Net Zero respectively.
  • Production of gas grows across all three scenarios in Russia, reaching 671 bcm under Rapid and 917 bcm, under BAU by 2050.
  • Nuclear output grows across all three scenarios: by 17% under BAU, 32% under Rapid and 94% under Net Zero by 2050. Nuclear reaches 9% of the primary energy mix under Rapid and 13% under Net Zero.
  • These effects combine to reduce net CO2 emissions by 92% in the Net Zero scenario, 69% under Rapid and 24% under BAU.
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